During the pandemic, the senator has blasted health agencies and medical experts, promoted unproven treatments and questioned the broad push for vaccination. According to a Morning Consult Political Intelligence survey of all 50 states, just 37% of registered Wisconsin voters approve of Johnson, while 51% disapprove. Post author: Charles Franklin; Post published: August 17, 2022; Post category: Poll Release . Among independents, 56 percent disapprove of Johnsons job performance up 14 points since the third quarter of 2020, before the presidential election while the share with no opinion fell from 28 to 16 percent during the same period. In that sense, Johnsons political future may depend on maximizing turnout from the partys pro-Trump base while still winning over some anti-Trump Republicans and independents. Approval rating Approval Disapproval rating Disapproval Net approval. This made him the second-most unpopular senator out of the 100 currently serving, after only McConnell; Kentucky voters disapprove of him by a 60%-33% margin. How Every Senator And Governor Ranks According To Popularity Above Replacement, reinstate former President Donald Trumps account, What The 20 Republicans Who Voted Against Kevin McCarthy Have In Common. Several conservatives involved in the state argued that Johnson casting himself as foe of Biden and the national Democratic brand could help shore up his intraparty standing. GOP Love for Johnson Exceeded Only by Democratic Disdain. Need to report an error? A FiveThirtyEight report last week suggested Barnes, who has endorsements from progressive Democratic Senators Bernie Sanders (Vt.) and Elizabeth Warren (Mass. President Joe Biden narrowly carried Wisconsin in the 2020 election. @baseballot, 2022 Election (348 posts) If youre running in a purple state and its a Republican year, none of that matters., Eli Yokley is a senior data reporter at Morning Consult covering politics and campaigns. Bemis, a major plastics manufacturer, had appointed Howard Curler as its CEO in 1978, and during the first several years of PACUR's existence, Bemis was the business' sole client. Republicans in Wisconsin said Johnson would do well to craft a message meant to appeal to voters in the middle, nodding to the approach of Virginia Gov. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) is deeply unpopular among his own constituents, according to a new poll released Monday. His approval rating, according to a recent Marquette Law School poll, is at 41% up four points since June and yet, Wisconsin is on the verge of sending him back to Washington for a third term.. In fact, the only current senator with a lower approval rating is Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who has infamously blocked hundreds of popular pieces of legislation.. RCP House Ratings, Map. Bolded rows denote governors running for reelection in 2022. 1990 FLEER BASEBALL 501-660 YOU PICK SEE SCANS .99 UNLIMITED SHIPPING HIGH GRADE. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass. Wisconsin is over and over the one percentage point or less state the land of the nail-biter, said Ben Wikler, chair of the Democratic Party of Wisconsin. Glenn Youngkin, a Republican who highlighted economic and educational issues to defeat his Democratic rival last year. Johnson has received his highest negatives ever (the share of voters who view him unfavorably) in Marquettes last four polls. Cant fix stupid or true believers. January 25, 2022 at 12:01 am ET. MU poll also shows Michels/Kleefisch in virtual tie in GOP primary for governor. Ron Johnson Approval Rating. Bill Clinton 1993-2001. Nathaniel Rakich is a senior elections analyst at FiveThirtyEight. In Marquettes last poll, 36% of voters viewed him favorably and 58% viewed him unfavorably. This is less true for governors, however. 2023 Morning Consult, All Rights Reserved. Republican Sen. Ron Johnson will defend his seat against Democratic Lt. Gov. PPP recently conducted a poll for 314 Action in Wisconsin and found that the state unsurprisingly continues to be closely divided politically about a lot of things but not its feelings about Ron Johnson. Rife's warrant was served Wednesday and he is awaiting . Mandela Barnes in the general election in Wisconsin, NBC News projected. Although partisanship has been getting more important in gubernatorial races, it is not as dominant of a force in them as it is in federal elections.3. Governors running for reelection in swing states also have some very different PARGs that explain why some of them are vulnerable this year, while others probably dont have anything to worry about. All rights reserved. . The top 10 Senate seats that are most likely to flip to the other party. The reelection races of Sens. Besides touting Republican wins on regulatory relief, strengthening the military and tax cuts, Johnson used his rollout to hit the Biden administrations failed response to the COVID-19 pandemic, crime rates and the rising cost of living all issues that give Democrats heartburn. . Mandela Barnes leads Republican U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson among likely voters in the November election, according to the latest poll from the Marquette University Law School. But in fact, he has been quite polarizing. . ", "It's not like we don't have enough jobs here in Wisconsin," he told reporters in February. More money is expected to flow into the race as the candidates barrel toward the November general election. People are more polarized over Johnson by party, by ideology, by gender and other measures. Any off-year election is going to be a referendum on Joe Biden, which is why its going to be a really difficult year for Democrats in places like Wisconsin, said former Wisconsin radio host Charlie Sykes, an early proponent of Johnson during his 2010 bid whos, and the Trump-inspired GOP. Johnson, 67, has also been a magnet for criticism from Democrats who say he has spread harmful conspiracy theories about the coronavirus and the integrity of the 2020 election, among other controversial remarks. Let's get into the rationale for these changes. Among likely voters, Sen. Ron Johnson is supported by 52% and Lt. Gov. But a lot has changed in the last few months. In that sense, I think we can be quite confident the decline is real, Franklin said. Governor Mandela Barnes, and even tighter in the Republican primary for governor, with businessman Tim Michelsin a near-tie with former Lt. Jon Tester (+33 PARS) and Sherrod Brown (+20 PARS), who have managed to win multiple elections despite hailing from red states. Appointment o Appoint ambassadors, public ministers, federal judges: with advice and consent of the Senate o Appoints about 3,500 people, of which 1,125 require Senate approval o Can remove many of these apps at will o Technically appts military personnel o Selection of the right people: very imp o Cabinet: formal body of presidential . ", He also has angered Wisconsin workers by refusing to even try to bring home good jobs. Becky Can I marry this table, or this, you know, clock? RCP House Ratings, Map. Voicemail to me on election night 18 yrs. That could make it harder for Johnson to improve his standing this time around, since public opinion is firmer. He has refused to take responsibility for his unpopularity, claiming in January that it is all the news media's fault. Barnes had been a community activist after college, and served in the Wisconsin State Assembly before becoming lieutenant governor. Will they go back to the Republican Party because of Biden, or go to the polls and think, Yeah, I dont like Biden, but Ron Johnsons too crazy for Wisconsin?, he wrote announcing his re-election campaign was a good start in appealing to both the GOP base and the 6 to 7 percent who stand in the middle of the Wisconsin electorate as true swing voters. The question is: What will those suburban swing voters think? For instance, New Hampshire is an evenly divided state, but Gov. Why has the electorate increasingly polarized over Johnson? "First of all, I'm not a polarizing figure. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., is one of the most vulnerable Republican incumbents, with the Cook Political Report rating the Wisconsin race as a toss-up and the race for Pennsylvania's open Senate seat as . Their four most vulnerable incumbents this fall Sens. Michels has quickly jumped to the lead in the Republican primary, with 27% of the vote versus 26% for Kleefisch, 10% for former Marine Kevin Nicholson, and 3% for Rep. Timothy Ramthun. He welcomes comment at: drooks . Indeed, Democrats are more than twice as likely to strongly disapprove of Johnsons job performance than Republicans are to solidly back it, at 63 percent to 27 percent. Get The American Independent in your inbox, Former senior investigative reporter at ThinkProgress and former head of money-in-politics reporting at the Center for Public Integrity. Finally, the fault lines in the electorate are deeper today than they were back then. On the flip side, Republican Sen. Ron Johnson has one of the worst PARS scores (-18); despite his home state of Wisconsin having an R+4 partisan lean, his net approval rating is -14 percentage points. Republican Sen. Ron Johnson emerged from Donald Trumps presidency with his approval ratings in Wisconsin underwater and its only gotten worse under Joe Biden, even as voters there have soured on the Democratic president. He is also the most unpopular Republican among the broader electorate who is up for re-election next year. He said the early data has no way of accounting for the X factor of Ron Johnson when hes campaigning.. But hes got to execute on a winning message, and if we look at the numbers and the data, we know he hasnt been executing on a winning message.. Quarterly poll conducted Oct. 1-Dec. 31, 2021, among a representative sample of 10,496 registered Wisconsin voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-1 percentage points. @eyokley, Download Fastest Growing Brands 2022 Report, Sen. Ron Johnson speaks about the origins of COVID-19 at a press conference in Washington, D.C., in June 2021. A Democratic governor with a net approval of +2 in an R+7 state has a PARG of +9 (2+7 = 9). The question is whether the results in 2020 will be closer to her net approval rating or Maines light-blue partisanship; splitting the difference yields a race that leans (or tilts) Republican, which is exactly where major election handicappers have it. In . 2023, Urban Milwaukee, Inc. All rights reserved. With the prospect that abortion could soon be illegal in many states, some people may face difficult decisions about what to do if they have an unwanted pregnancy. Have you been living under a rock? The partisan leans in this article were calculated before the 2018 elections; we havent calculated FiveThirtyEight partisan leans that incorporate the midterm results yet. Sometimes there are these atmospheric waves where it doesnt matter what the campaign does, he said. Membership, which includes a host of perks, including an ad-free website, tickets to marquee events like Summerfest, the Wisconsin State Fair and the Florentine Opera, a better photo browser and access to members-only, behind-the-scenes tours, starts at $9/month. WISN host Adrienne Pederson grilled Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) about his toxic brand and his low approval ratings.In an interview on Sunday, Pederson asked Johnson how he planned to win re-election . And he doesn't shy away from progressive social issues: His TikTok account, for instance, features posts of him calling for the Senate to end the filibuster, codify Roe v. Wade into law and pass the Equality Act to enact protections for transgender people. Announces Mary Ellen Stanek as Board Chairwoman and adds Dr. Joan Prince and Charles Harvey to Board of Directors, Tiffany Tardy Named New Executive Director of MPS Foundation, DWD Announces Appointments of Jeremy Simon as Assistant Deputy Secretary, Arielle Exner as Legislative Liaison. But as Franklin points out, its really since 2019 that public opinion has grown markedly more negative and polarized over Johnson, and Johnson had already strongly aligned himself with Trump by then. There are far fewer voters than in the past who are undecided about Johnson, which could make it harder for him to improve his image over the course of this campaign. Democrats have zeroed in on Johnson's seat as they fight to hang onto their razor-thin Senate majority. Based on Morning Consults approval ratings1 for every senator and governor in the country (now updated for the first quarter of 2022), PARS and PARG attempt to measure how much stronger (or weaker) a politician is than a generic (or, to use a term from baseball, replacement-level) candidate from their party would be. In Marquettes recent polling, there is now a massive 130-point partisan gap in attitudes toward Johnson: plus 57 among Republicans, minus 73 among Democrats. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) insisted Sunday that his low approval ratings are not at all his fault and that he is "not a polarizing figure." Johnson made the comments during an interview with journalist Adrienne Pedersen on Milwaukee television . The same Marquette poll showed that among likely voters, Johnson is leading his Democratic . Senator, led by Lt. Cory Gardner of Colorado, Joni Ernst of Iowa, Thom Tillis of North Carolina and John Cornyn of Texas. Unlike this trio, there are some senators whose electoral fates probably do hinge on the presidential race. I gave thousands of dollars to Democratic Candidates and I continue to get phone calls to contribute more I picked up volunteers from Chicago to knock on doors in Waukesha County for John Kerry in 2004 I collected signatures to Recall Scott Walker in Brookfield, Wisconsin in 2011 and 2012 I never voted for a Republican since I started voting in 1972.. That being said, I just dropped out of the Democratic Party after 50 years of loyalty I am a devout Christian and a Catholic I refuse to condemn my soul to hell for a bunch of evil, corrupt, lying, war mongering, mass murdering, pieces of human excrement like Joe Biden, Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, Tammy Baldwin, Ben Wikler, Mark Pocan, Adam Schiff, and AOC. Angus King and Bernie Sanders are considered Democrats for the purposes of these calculations. Johnsons name recognition is also significantly higher today than it was back then. Americans Like Bidens Student Debt Forgiveness Plan. Republican Sen. Ron Johnson faces a Wisconsin electorate that is more negative toward him and more polarizedoverhim than ever. 2023 ABC News Internet Ventures. According to the latest Morning Consult poll, which covered the first three months of 2019, Manchin had a +5 net approval rating. Gas prices have plummeted. Instead of moving to the center, though, as he faces reelection this fall, the Wisconsin senator has . The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel (among other news outlets) is reporting that two-term Republican incumbent Ron Johnson has decided to run and will make his formal announcement very soon: Johnson . Senator Ron Johnson's . This is ridiculous. yes, Becky. That said, they are all in very safe states, so they shouldnt be in any danger. Tony Evers of Wisconsin may be more at the mercy of the national mood. Pay no attention to countless testimonies? Last month, he opposed federal funds to help the American microchip industry compete against China, indicating that he did not want to "have government picking the winners and losers.". Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information. Bolded rows denote senators running for reelection in 2022. That conversation starts with Sen. Doug Jones, who comes in at No. Sen. Ron Johnson is commonly referred to as one of the country's most unpopular U.S. senators. The results echo a poll done in mid-May by Public Policy Polling for the Milwaukee nonprofit,Milwaukee Works, which found a virtual dead heat between Michels and Kleefisch. This version of partisan lean, meant to be used for congressional and gubernatorial elections, is calculated as 50 percent the state or districts lean relative to the nation in the most recent presidential election, 25 percent its relative lean in the second-most-recent presidential election and 25 percent a custom state-legislative lean. Heading into this years campaign, though, Morning Consults quarterly tracking shows Johnsons approval rating severely underwater. Governor Rebecca Kleefisch. According to a Morning Consult Political Intelligence survey of all 50 states, just 37% of registered . Hi. In a June 2022 poll, 37% of voters viewed the senator favorably and 46% viewed . Plus 18to minus 20 among voters 70 and older (the sharpest decline among any group we looked at). . Bjork, whos previously worked for Emilys List and President Barack Obamas Wisconsin campaigns, noted that running as a progressive in the state isnt impossible, pointing to the winning path charted by Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) a decade ago. Wisconsins senior senator should get a boost from traditional midterm dynamics, where the party out of power is helped by animosity toward the party in the White House. Franklin is professor of law and public policy at Marquette Law School, and director of the Marquette Law School Poll, And we see that downward movement across most of the groups we looked at. Tommy Rife, of Cedar Bluff, Va., is charged with one count of misdemeanor assault and battery, according to Richlands Police Chief Ron Holt. 2020 Senate Elections (55) Douglas Rooks, a Maine editor, commentator and reporter since 1984, is the author of three books, and is now researching the life and career of a U.S. Chief Justice. Independent Sens. Johnson breezed through the state's Republican primary election Tuesday night, NBC News projected. Scott and Kelly4 seem to be in the best position, especially Scott: Not only does he have more cross-party appeal than Kelly (+77 PARG), but he is also a Republican running in a good Republican year. Accordingly, he leads all senators with a +35 PARS. Hitt said Johnsons message in a Wall Street Journal op-ed he wrote announcing his re-election campaign was a good start in appealing to both the GOP base and the 6 to 7 percent who stand in the middle of the Wisconsin electorate as true swing voters. Shaheen has a +21 net approval rating, Warner has a +19 net approval rating and Smith has a +18 net approval rating. Multiple polls also show Johnson's approval ratings underwater. The decline in sentiment largely started after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020 but gained momentum after Biden was elected, when Johnson made headlines for his statements about the Jan. 6 Capitol attack and skepticism of vaccines. Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire, Mark Warner of Virginia and Tina Smith of Minnesota are electorally vulnerable. Harry S. Truman 1945-53. Democrats are banking on Johnsons unpopularity to give them an edge in one of the only contests this year where they stand a chance of knocking off a Republican incumbent as they defend a narrow Senate majority. Map 1: Crystal Ball Senate ratings. Some recent surveys put his approval at 35%, while a March Marquette University Law School poll found him at just 33% support.