Excluding those who declare themselves to be undecided (currently around 6% of the electorate), polling averages from February 2023. places the Yes side at 47.1% and the No side at 52.9%. Keir Starmer has finally found his Clause IV moment. Voters head to polls across Scotland, Wales and England for devolved Should the public's feeling remain largely down. The latest opinion polling from outlet YouGov shows respondents relatively downbeat on the state of the US economy over the next six months, anticipating that inflation will rise, there will be further interest rate hikes, and gas prices will increase. Copyright 2023 YouGov PLC. Can the public identify the Deputy Leader of the Labour Party? We will not share your email address with any third parties. YouGov found that voting intention in 53 such constituencies in the south and east of England currently held by the party stood at 44% for the Conservatives, 24% for Labour, 18% for the Liberal Democrats and 9% for the Greens. At the heart of our company is a global online community, where millions of people and thousands of political, cultural and commercial organizations engage in a continuous conversation about their beliefs, behaviours and brands. In the case of Wales, Politics.co.uk has drawn on the most recent YouGov poll produced on 27 February. Only 44 per cent of those most likely to back the SNP said the same. Latest opinion polls news, commentary and analysis, including political and voting intention polls, by polling companies including YouGov, Ipsos MORI and Survation. ((__lxGc__=window.__lxGc__||{'s':{},'b':0})['s']['_222513']=__lxGc__['s']['_222513']||{'b':{}})['b']['_680898']={'i':__lxGc__.b++}; Never miss the day's key interactions and exchanges in parliament. Polling includes only those that explicitly ask how the responder would vote in a hypothetical referendum on the United Kingdom rejoining the European Union, rather than repeating the remain/leave question of the 2016 referendum. Again, the Scottish sample is even small (103 out of 993 once don't knows are removed) but the survey puts Labour in the lead north of the Border on 40 per cent of the vote. Public Opinion Polls - For Women Scotland For Women Scotland, conducted by Panelbase, reported in the Times, 18 Dec 2021Data, MurrayBlackburnMackenzie, conducted by Survation, Nov 2021Report I Data. A majority of Scots back same-sex marriage, according to the most detailed survey of public opinion since MSPs began moves to change the law. BBC Scotland Gender Recognition Act Poll, conducted by Savanta ComRes, reported by the BBC 17 Feb 2022Full Results I DataMain findings: 57% would support making the process to acquire a gender recognition certificate easier but that support dropped when asked about specific proposals. Data collected at regular intervals about or relating to Voting Intention, tracking changes over time. Support for the SNP, for Nicola Sturgeon and for Scottish independence has fallen sharply as the partys crisis over transgender rights deepens. Boris Johnson Goads Rishi Sunak Over Poor Tory Poll Ratings Something went wrong, please try again later. Scottish independence: yes campaign gets poll boost This includes a majority of those who agree the people should be freely able to express their transgender identity. Scottish independence polls & surveys | YouGov Conservative support then fell by a further 6% as the first Downing Street party allegations emerged. Those who are likely voters, don't know, or wouldn't vote are excluded. An existing account was found for this email address. Majority of people support NEU teacher strikes, YouGov poll finds Dorset Live 14:59 6-Feb-23. Nicola Sturgeon expected to resign as Scottish First Minister today But why? Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "If another Scottish Independence Referendum were held today, how would you vote?" Rather than drop back after IndyRef1, and with the SNP remaining in government in Edinburgh under new first minister Nicola Sturgeon, support for Scottish independence continued to rise. Trend support for the Green Party has nudged up slightly to the 5%-6% mark. The result of an IndyRef today 2 March 2023. The Conservatives continued to record significant poll leads over Labour almost consistently throughout 2020 and 2021, with only a brief interlude in autumn 2020 where this narrowed. State of the Nation. Dates. By the second half of 2020, in November 2020, the Yes campaign reached a record level of 56% in the polls. Respondents are asked Which of these statements comes closest to your view? Ron DeSantis now leads former President Donald Trump by 5 percentage points in the race for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination. . With the Conservatives polling over 50%, this lead briefly surpassed 20% at the beginning of the Covid pandemic in March and April 2020. : medium.com. A high percentage of respondents agreeing that people should be free to express their transgender identity does not however translate into support for reforming the Gender Recognition Act based on self-declaration. Britain Elects (@BritainElects) / Twitter The latest YouGov panel has shown a shift against independence in several areas. Scottish election 2021: Sturgeon says SNP 'not a divided party' However, coinciding with the roll out of the coronavirus vaccine and the conclusion of Boris Johnsons Brexit deal at the end of 2020, the Conservative party once again opened up a significant election poll lead over Labour. Some organisations have chosen to commission polls that adopt the remain / leave formulation that was used in the 2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum. By clicking 'Create Account and Subscribe' you agree to us creating an account for you and subscribing you to our newsletter in accordance with our Privacy Policy and Legal Notice.Emails, which may be sent daily or less frequently, may include marketing elements. In terms of translating these election poll findings into a projected make up of the current House of Commons, Politics.co.uk has used the Butler method to calculate the current swing between the parties compared to the 2019 General Election. Automotive. (Excluding Dont Knows the margin is just shy of 70/30, very similar to the margin by which people in polls oppose self-ID generally. The latest YouGov poll, of 1,088 voters in Scotland from January 23 to January 26, found that Sturgeon's approval rating had slipped into negative territory, from +7 to -4, since October. We haven't published any articles, trackers or survey results about Voting Intention. All Rights Reserved. Don't miss out! The latest voting intention survey puts Labour a whopping 28 points ahead of the Tories, with Rishi Sunak's party flirting with sub-20 numbers in what would be a historic low. Polling conducted before the 2014 Scottish independence referendum can be found here. In the case of Northern Ireland, with its own political parties, Politics.co.uk has drawn on the LucidTalk opinion poll of 3 February. At the heart of our company is a global online community, where millions of people and thousands of political, cultural and commercial organizations engage in a continuous conversation about their beliefs, behaviours and brands. The previous YouGov covered the 23rd - 26th of January. Published by Statista Research Department , Feb 15, 2023. The other tables reflect different ways questions around Independence can be asked, they may produce different results. Although these recommendations are yet to be finalized, the next General Election will almost certainly be fought on a redrawn constituency map. A new Yahoo News/YouGov poll finds that Florida Gov. Labour scalps would include Tommy Sheppard, Angus MacNeil, Douglas Chapman and Stewart McDonald. Energy & utilities. Similarly, the above analysis has been conducted based on the existing United Kingdom constituency boundaries. In the aftermath of the 2019 General Election, the Conservative party enjoyed a healthy lead in the opinion polls. [1] Following that judgment, the SNP reiterated its intention to campaign in the next UK general election as a de facto independence referendum. Under any election held on this basis, the Liberal Democrats would also be on course to gain 22 seats from the Conservatives. SNP depute leader Keith Brown said in September 2019 that it was "a deliberate bid to confuse independence with Brexit". Savanta ComRes said that the poll result "should not be treated as a headline Savanta ComRes voting intention". We will not share your email address with any third parties. Former prime minister Boris Johnson, net zero secretary Grant Shapps, and transport secretary Mark Harper, are amongst some of the leading political figures who would lose their seats to Labour. The end of 2021, showed how quickly politics can change. The above analysis of general election polls has been calculated through linear average equation modelling of the latest UK opinion polls of Westminster voting intention. The latest Panelbase survey. Week-in-Review: Covid sleaze is back and more politically potent than ever, Former Conservative party chairman: Sue Gray appointment proves Starmer is man of the establishment. New YouGov projections suggest Tories could become UK's FOURTH party When Johnson announced his resignation on July 7, 2022, YouGov polling showed Labour on 40% and the Tories on 29% an 11 point lead. British Social Attitudes Survey 39, reported in The Times, 22 Sep 2022Full results I Chapter on Culture WarsMain findings: YouGov, May 2022Full report I DataMain findings: Equalities, Human Rights and Civil Justice Committee, Scottish Parliament, reported 23 May 2022, Wings Over Scotland, conducted by Panelbase, reported on 02 May 2022: Voting for people who hate you. Opinion Polling Sees Households Downbeat On Economy In Coming Months Most polling companies listed here are members of the . Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "On a scale of 0 to 10 where 0 means 'I completely oppose Scotland becoming an independent country' and 10 means 'I completely support Scotland becoming an independent country' what number would you consider yourself to be?". But we can't do it without you. The poll also showed a reversal on the independence question over past month, with support for secession down from 53 per cent to 47 per cent among those expressing a view the lowest since last spring. Under the current polling, Labour is on course to win seats in parts of the country where it has always been a distant spectator, such as both Bournemouth constituencies in Dorset, Macclesfield in Cheshire, Aylesbury in Buckingham, Southend East in Essex, Weston Super Mare, and Bromley and Chiselhurst in south east London. They do not factor in the potential for further additional regional or constituency centric swings. Ballot Box Scotland - Democracy in Detail Combining deep sector expertise with local knowledge to provide you with a deep understanding of your industry. Kemi Badenoch, who has proved popular . In terms of specific adjustments then made to this analysis, Politics.co.uk has assumed that the Green MP Caroline Lucas would continue to hold her safe seat in Brighton Pavilion, and that Sir Lindsay Hoyle would be returned as Speaker for his constituency of Chorley. Latest opinion polls news, commentary and analysis, including political and voting intention polls, by polling companies including YouGov, Ipsos MORI and Survation. The pollster found Labour on 50 per cent of the vote an increase of three points from their last poll. However as the Scottish parliament became fully operational in Edinburgh, support for independence initially waned, trending around 30% in the first decade of the twentieth century. Back to 1970s., BlackRock Throgmorton Trust Impressive run continues, Police arrest fugitive suspected of stabbing mother and daughter to death, EU workers contribute 2,300 more in taxes than the average Brit, EuroMillions Results for Friday 24 June 2022 Tonights winning numbers, Domestic abuse calls up 25% in coronavirus lockdown charity, International press document Britains Brexit bregret, World War II paratrooper says Brexit is breaking his heart on his 100th birthday. Slovakia's Smer back on top of opinion polls ahead of snap election bne IntelliNews 10:02 27-Feb-23. Redfield and Wilton (26 February) which placed Labour on 51%, the Conservatives on 24%, and the Liberal Democrts on 9%. In the midst of the coronavirus pandemic, one in which the Scottish government took responsibility for the handling of the virus in Scotland, there were signs of sustained backing for Scottish independence for the first time. The current voting intention trend can be seen in the most recent individual polls: Techme (10 February) which placed Labour on 47%, the Conservatives on 26%, and the Liberal Democrts on 9%. What has happened to the once-great British Airways? on public opinion. However after the Scottish National Party (SNP) formed a minority government in Edinburgh, support for Scottish independence started to grow again after 2007. had started to nudge back up towards 40%. The government is becoming increasingly authoritarian and our media is run by a handful of billionaires, most of whom reside overseas and all of them have strong political allegiances and financial motivations. All rights reserved. With the Russian invasion of Ukraine heavily dominating the UK news agenda, the position of the UKs political parties became somewhat becalmed during the spring on 2022 with no notable movements in the polls. conservative party Labour Party If you can afford to contribute a small donation to the site it will help us to continue our work in the best interests of the public. Polling, even using the same question, can show systematic differences between different polling organisations and sponsors. Further details of the latest voting intentions in relation to a Scottish independence referendum can be seen in the most recent individual polls: Techne (February 23) which placed the Yes side on 45.3% and the No side on 54.7%, post adjusting for undecided voters. At the heart of our company is a global online community, where millions of people and thousands of political, cultural and commercial organizations engage in a continuous conversation about their beliefs, behaviours and brands. The company, based in Drumchapel, has reportedly ceased all trading with its annual results currently overdue by more than two months. Please read our privacy policy and terms of use before signing up. The pollster found. The figures show the Conservatives on 28% of the vote (-4 from our previous survey on 21-23 September) to Labour's 45% (+5) - this is the highest Labour lead YouGov has ever recorded. The majority of people believe that a doctors approval should be needed for a person to change their sex in law. The main table includes primarily those polls which ask the same question as the 2014 referendum: "Should Scotland be an Independent Country?". In the 2016 independence referendum, some 44.7% of Scottish voters backed Scotland becoming an independent country. Analysis pieces written by YouGovs data journalists based on data collected about or relating to Voting Intention. 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